MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Data from one of the top university health departments in the country explains just how important it is to practice social distancing during the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The data from Emory University shows that the most favorable outcomes will lead to deaths and thousands sick.
Emory University health experts worked closely with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to create the ‘coronavirus estimator.’
It’s a set of data-driven projections for how the pandemic could play out.
For the Memphis-area, there is a huge range of different possibilities.
“It was stunning to see how many people could die from the virus,” Baptist Hospital Infectious Disease Expert Dr. Minoj Jain said. “And even how many people could be hospitalized.”
The low end of the projections say Memphis could see 10,000 cases and 50 deaths.
In the worst case scenario, Emory University says 300,000 people could contract the virus and 6,000 people could die.
“That’s the worst case scenario. There’s a wide range of, we may not have a significant impact to an extreme significant impact,” Shelby County Health Department Director Dr. Alisa Haushalter said. “That’s really to help us prepare to assist hospitals should they need additional assistance.”
Local hospitals are still working to prepare for more patients. It is not a matter of gathering materials but major changes will be required.
“This is a huge change,” Dr. Jain said. “Asking hospitals to maybe double or triple their capacity. So, it’s going to take time and that is why we’re really asking folks to practice social distancing.”
Doctors are more concerned about people violating the CDC recommended safety guidelines. One group of people could jeopardize everyone else.
“To be successful, you are going to need a team effort. If you have half the population saying we don’t care about this, we’re going to to do what we want. Well, what’s going to happen is, the virus is going to explode in the population.”
The worst-case estimates show 120 times the amount of casualties than the best case scenario.
It will be crucial for everyone in the Mid-South to stay in safe for the next few weeks
