The NFL draft is finally here. Let’s get to the latest intel I’m hearing from around the league …
• I was joking with a few guys over the phone last night that this, as I see it, has become the screw it draft.
What does that mean? That teams will be on the clock at pick Nos. 10, 15 or 20, and see a player they like, but want to get him, say, five picks later, thinking he’ll still be there. The problem, then, will be that there’s an oversaturation of teams looking to move down and very few looking to come up. So this is the draft where, if you’re a GM or a coach, and you see a guy you like, you’ll say screw it, and just take him.
It happened last year at No. 12, where the Denver Broncos had Bo Nix as the second-best quarterback in the draft, behind only Jayden Daniels, and decided not to worry about the draft slot, and just went with the guy they loved. Eighteen starts and a playoff berth later, and I don’t think anyone really harps too much on the value the Broncos got at 12 rather than trading down to get him somewhere else.
Nix might’ve taken a pretty good tumble if he didn’t go at 12. The only team I’ve been able to find that I think would’ve considered taking him in the first round was the New Orleans Saints, who took Taliese Fuaga at 14. Maybe they’d have taken Nix, given the chance. But if he’d gotten by New Orleans, I think he might’ve fallen to the second round.
Denver didn’t have a second-rounder—it actually went to the Saints as part of the Broncos hiring Sean Payton. So they chose not to try to get cute. They said, in short, screw it.
I think there’ll be a lot of that tonight.
• Speaking of the Saints, their quarterback situation obviously remains in flux.
To review, there was a point in the offseason when Derek Carr wanted a raise, then a trade, and then the Saints unilaterally converted the great majority of his 2025 money from base salary to a signing bonus, which essentially locked him in with the team for the year. After that, news of the potential shoulder surgery—stemming from a ’23 injury—surfaced, and a lot of questions have followed (older quarterbacks generally have a lot of wear and tear on the throwing shoulder, and could use surgery).
Hearing GM Mickey Loomis’s tone in his Wednesday press conference only reinforced the idea that things aren’t in the best place right now between the team and quarterback.
• I think the New York Giants will take a quarterback … either Thursday or Friday.
I don’t think it’ll be with the third pick. And I think there are relationships, and work done, that have nothing to do with Shedeur Sanders that shouldn’t be ignored here.
My understanding is Giants coach Brian Daboll has spent a lot of time talking with, and getting to know, Ole Miss’s Jaxson Dart in the weeks leading up to the draft (he’s done the same with Sanders). There are no two people you’ll find who are higher on Dart than Rebels assistant coaches Charlie Weis Jr. and Joe Judge. Weis’s father, Charlie Sr., is one of Daboll’s coaching mentors. Meanwhile, Judge, who was Daboll’s predecessor in New York, was also his Patriots staffmate from 2013 to ’16.
I can’t say for sure what Daboll thinks of Dart. But I can say with a good degree of confidence that what he’s getting from Oxford on Ole Miss’s three-year starting quarterback—who was good enough to prompt Lane Kiffin to bake West Coast–based NFL concepts into the Baylor-type spread offense he’s built for the SEC—is glowing. And those things matter with a decision this big.
• One interesting byproduct of the NIL era when it comes to the draft: It’s seeping into how players practice, which has given teams another layer of character research to dig through.
A coach raised this with me Wednesday, and how at some programs below the blue-blood level, players actually have practice time and roles as part of their deals. Those programs are in a tough spot, where if they say no, they risk getting poached by richer rivals. So they’ll acquiesce, and guys will have a relative country club setup for their final year or two in college, which can make it harder to assess work ethic and practice habits.
Of course, you could argue a guy asking for that tells you what you need to know.
• Among the things I’ve heard as we draw closer to the draft is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are at least exploring a move down from 21. It doesn’t mean they will, but it makes sense that they would try to replace the second-rounder they dealt to Seattle for DK Metcalf.
Another way to help add to their six picks would be to trade George Pickens. An intention to do so would be one way to explain the amount of work they’ve done on Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka, whom I’ve heard has done really well for the Steelers (though I still think interior defensive line or quarterback would be more likely at 21).
• We’ve mentioned the lean-body-mass statistic some teams now use with players as a predictor for injuries and also growth as pros—Abdul Carter’s was the one we raised as being a little low.
Michigan DT Mason Graham is another player who has a bit of a lower number there, which could be an issue for teams such as the Chicago Bears that have traditionally relied on that stat.
• I had Marshall DE Mike Green slipping from the first round in my mock. I think he could go as high as 15 to Atlanta or 17 to Cincinnati, but his outlook is a bit of a moving target because of sexual assault allegations from college.
Green has denied the accusations, but decisions on these sorts of risks go to a team’s security departments and then, eventually, to the owners. And some owners won’t want to take a risk, even if a guy has been cleared, especially in cases where there’s more than one incident.
For that reason, fair or not, Green is off some team’s boards.
• One highly polarizing prospect is Texas A&M edge Shemar Stewart. He’s big, twitchy and strong, and has an off-the-assembly-line defensive end build. But for all his athletic traits, he didn’t produce nearly to his talent as an Aggie, and there are a lot of teams out on him.
“The most overrated guy in the draft,” says one coach. “Watch the last two years. Does he ever make a play? I just kept watching, there’s no awareness, no instincts. I can’t get over the lack of production. … It’s boom or bust. He’s a swing for the fences.”
Along those lines, if he’s on the board for Texas A&M alum Dan Campbell (who presumably has a good pipeline to information in College Station) and the Lions at 28, it’ll be interesting to see what happens.
• UCLA’s Carson Schwesinger is an interesting player to watch. One executive told me it was hard to study the other Bruins defenders because Schwesinger seemed to make every play. I don’t think he’ll go in the first round, but if he does, he’d be an interesting fit for Baltimore at 26.
• The availability of CB Jaire Alexander over the weekend will be interesting to watch, particularly if Green Bay takes a corner at 23. I think corner and receiver are in play. Maybe offensive line, too, with three starters going into contract years, though I think the plan to give 2024 first-rounder Jordan Morgan a chance to compete with Rasheed Walker for the left tackle spot gives them some flexibility at those positions.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Draft 2025: Teams Looking to Move Down, Few Looking to Move Up.