Last Friday, a winter storm gave parts of the Mid-South over 7 inches of snow. Memphis International Airport recorded 7.5″ of snow; even as high as 8.3″ in Helena-West Helena, Arkansas.

Now that storm has passed and many are already looking ahead to more possible wintry weather. Let’s talk about it.

We know it is going to get cold. In fact, it will be the coldest air we have seen so far this winter.

A blast of arctic air will move in Saturday night, dropping our temperatures significantly. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will not even make it out of the 20s. Many nights next week will be spent in the teens. Breezy winds will make it feel-like the single digits at times, making the cold very dangerous for those left outside for a long period of time. Now is a good time to make your cold weather precautions.

So, we’ve got the cold air, but what about moisture? A low pressure is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and track eastward. That low pressure may help to push moisture northward and into the southeast. Will that moisture make it all the way north to the Mid-South? That now seems like an unlikely scenario.

The latest model runs keep the bulk of the moisture to our south, giving the Gulf Coast a winter storm on Tuesday. This has been the trend in the guidance over the last 24 hours. Sorry snow lovers, Tuesday just looks like a very cold day for the Mid-South.

A tool we use when forecasting winter weather is look at ensembles. Ensembles take a single forecast model, tweak the variables slightly, and run it multiple times. Out of those 50 different runs, over half of them still give Memphis at least 0.1″ of snow by the end of next week. That is something we will be watching closely, as another system may develop on the heels of Tuesday’s, giving us another shot of wintry weather.

Right now, there is no winter weather in the 7-day forecast. But, that certainly may change in the coming days as we continue to monitor all of the latest forecast guidance.

What is for certain, it is going to get VERY cold. Take the time now to prepare for multiple days well below freezing. Wrap the exterior pipes on your home, make sure your pets have a warm place to stay, and check up on friends and loved ones that may not have access to adequate heating.